Was it a roll of the dice or fear?

Now that the dust has settled and we’ve had an opportunity to hear both sides of the argument, analyze endless statistics such as; the Patriots 4th down completion percentage vs. the Colts (74.8%) as opposed to the percentage of times opponents had gained the necessary 4th down yardage against the Colts (60%), we’ve decided to refer to an older formula to resolve the argument weather Bill’s decision was the right one. Ours may date back to the 14th century but if Bill would have followed it the Pats would probably be 7-2, a half game behind the Colts (tie-breaker) and in front of the Begals, Broncos, and Chargers for the best record and home field throughout. Occam’s Razor states that "entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity" or loosely translates to the “simplest explanation is usually the best one”. The genius simply out thought himself this time and made a situation way more complicated than it needed to be. Peyton and the Colts scored on their last two possessions true, however that was with no time constraints and a full array of the playbook, including set-up plays at their disposal. It’s quite a different animal when you have to complete the task inside 2 minutes and travel 60-70 yards in the process. Instead Bill opted not to trust his defense, and put the game in the hands of the top offense in the league. Ok, make your argument about the status of the Colt D with their injuries, but then again Brady didn’t even throw at one of the rookie corners. Or retort with the percentage argument, but I’ll ‘trump’ you by pointing out that if you don’t make the first down the game is surely over, and therefore you get one play to make where Peyton would have to string together at lest 4 or 5 without a mistake. Bottom line is the ‘rule of thumb’ is a there for a reason, because all things being equal (Cēterīs paribus if you want to stay in the 14th century) the Pats would have been better off punting the ball and forcing a tired Colt offense to string together a last second drive against the 14th ranked defense. But then again what do we know, as we’re just simple minded spectators that sometimes come up with a solution is the best one. What do you think about Bill’s decision? Let us know here and in the Patriots/Colt chat room or quick links.
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NFL mid-season report

On the brink of the second half of the NFL season we wanted to take stalk on where the season has been and where it’s headed.

Biggest surprise Denver Broncos – We realize they’ve lost two games in a row, but even with that said, who would have thought the Broncos would be in first place in the AFC west with a game lead, and a victory over two division opponents? Of course things can change but right now it’s looking like the Broncos got the better end of the deal with Chicago, in their off-season quarterback exchange. Even more surprising than Orton’s performance has been the Bronco D, which has only allowed 13.8 points per game. The Broncos still have another game with the bolts, plus games with the G-men, Colts, and Eagles in the second half so nothing will come easy.

Biggest disappointment Tennessee Titans – Hard to believe this team was 13-3 last year with home court throughout. Not only did they take a first game exit, but they will not even make it back to the playoffs this year. QB controversy is among the problem list in the Music City. After an executive management intervention Vince Young took the helm and led them to their first victory of the season. Now he has to regain the trust of his teammates and coaching staff to prove that he’s worthy of the first pick, that fat contract, and can lead them into the future. Three upcoming games with the Bills, Texans, and Cards could make the season respectable.

Co-MVPs Peyton Manning and Drew Breese – You can’t lean one way or the other on this one as both Qs have lead their teams to 8-0 records and in position to clinch home field throughout the playoffs. Both have put up Pro-Bowl numbers, Peyton is 221-313, for 2535 and 16 TDs, while Drew is 181-265, for 2336 and 17 TDs. However if Peyton can manage to keep the Colts on top of the AFC you would have to swing the MVP vote his way because of the gauntlet of a schedule they face. The marquis game this week with the 3-time Super Bowl MVP Brady, then with matchups with the Ravens, Texans (they always play the Colts tough), Broncos, and Jets. On the other hand the Saints have a legitimate shot to run the gauntlet and go unbeaten. Their two major hurdles New England and Dallas are in the Dome, the rest are with sub-500 teams and can easily be won. Truth be told, if DB can complete the 16 game feat hand him the hardware after where that franchise has been.

Casper the Ghost award for being transparent Terrell Owens – I can’t remember when someone has come to a team with so more hype and turned out to be all sizzle and no steak. Although he wasn’t expected to turn the franchise around, it was anticipated that he would improve the offense but they’re actually worse this year, and TO stats? 23 reps for 231 yards and 1 TD, not a misprint, he’s not even the top receiver on the team let alone a top receiver in the league.
Who is your biggest surprise, disappointment, and MVP? Let us know here and in any of the quick links.

Is the NFL becoming bi-polar nature becoming a problem?

As a entity that tries to pay attention to all aspects of the football spectrum, from stats to betting lines, and one thing that jumps out is the discrepancy between the top and bottom teams this year. In previous years, when you saw a 14-point plus line it was cause for trepidation and fear of a ‘bear trap’, but this year the dogs just aren’t barking and there’s no harbinger that shows that they won’t continue to be tamed. Last week alone three favs laid over two touchdowns and covered easily (Pat, Colts, Packers) and the Jets proved to be a steal at -10. Approaching the mid-way point in the season and still no “Dog Day Afternoon” where the battered and beaten rise up against the powerful. Unfortunately for dog lovers and the NFL in general it appears that for the first time in years there is a real continental divide between the best and the worst, the gap is substantial, and widening faster than a California fault line. Speaking of California, one of the culprits are the Raiders, whose management is so bad there is talk of having Al ‘Don’ Davis ruled incompetent. Sticking with bad management, the Redskins have proven that money can not buy happiness, as they still have not mastered the art of currency exchange, while trying to convert US Dollars to US wins. Ironically, these are not the most critical patients. 20% of the league has one or no wins, making for a ton of games that no one wants to see either because there’s nothing at steak or the inevitable blowout like last weekend. This is something the league has to consider any time the subject of salary cap comes up as although it’s not an 162 game season, you’ve already got games being blacked out and teams eliminated from playoff contention and we haven’t even handed out candy or cut the turkey yet. And if you support one the afore mentioned clubs, you may be entitled to a 50% refund on your NFL Sunday Ticket because it may not be used come November. Is the good/bad situation in the NFL serious? Can you see some of the bad teams making their season respectable? Let us know here and in any of the quick links.

Will the real contenders please stand up?

This far this year we’ve had plenty of story lines to keep things more than interesting and it actually started in the pre-season with the JC drama out of Denver and into Chi-Town (and now with a contract extension!), but now it’s time for the real contenders to step up and take their respective divisions and put the pretenders to bed. Please note this warning does not hold true for the following teams: New Orleans, Minnesota, Indianapolis, and Denver, yes Denver. All of the afore mentioned clubs have beaten everyone they’ve put in front of them and as we approach the mid-way point in the season look like they deserve to host one and perhaps two games. But we’ve talked about them before. This is about any team that with a blemish or two on their record but wants to play with the big boys, starting with the defending World Champion Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2), tied for first and winners of 3 straight, but the upcoming stretch of Vikings, Broncos, Bengals will truly show if they are ready to step up to the “Steel City” teams of the 70’s and compete for back to back rings. Thus far they have been inconsistent and have not been able to put teams away once they’ve had them down. New England Patriots (4-2), we still don’t think you’re all the way back and a 59-0 drubbing over a winless team with a banged up secondary doesn’t change anything. The Pats have lost two of their three biggest test this year with (Jets, Broncos, and Ravens) but have another one coming up with the Colts in a game that used to decide home field for the AFC Championship in the past, but right now the Pats haven’t shown the consistency to be in the same class as the unbeaten Colts. Atlanta Falcons (5-1) if they didn’t have to deal with the Saints they would be screaming about a trip to Florida come February, but unfortunately New Orleans does reside in the same division and is currently unbeaten, but don’t worry Black Bird fans as your chance to pull the mutiny will come soon enough in two weeks as long as you don’t get caught looking ahead. Lastly, the Jets are now 3-3, Sanchez has come back down to earth (5 picks in his last start) and the Jet-Mets have no where to turn for sports as they can’t watch baseball either. If Sanchez is not have a come-to-earth experience then teams have begun to scheme for him and he’d better start looking defenders off and mixing things up or he will soon suffer ‘pine disease’ like his predecessor Matt Leinart. Are any of the second-tier teams for real?